Your Simple Guide to Marriage Prediction
The newly developed practice of marriage prediction is still more of an art than a science. However, there are some basic indicators of what factors increase the chances of a successful marriage (where we measure “success” as not ending in divorce). Here are some of the indicators.
Compatibility of Outlook
Perhaps the key factor in marriage prediction is whether a couple has compatible outlooks. This sometimes means that the couple shares a similar worldview because of upbringing, class, religion, culture, and personality. Studies show that those who try to bridge too great a divide are at greater risk for failure in marriage. For example, two individuals from different cultures may have greater difficulties reconciling their differing views of how children should be raised and the roles each should adopt. Someone from a traditional Hispanic culture and someone from a progressive European culture may uncover tensions between what their children should learn, what roles each should take in regards to professions and family life, and what role extended families should play in their daily lives.
Such issues often tend to come into full manifestation only once children enter the picture further complicating matters.
However, compatible views do not mean identical views. In other words, it is possible for people from differing cultures who both have “traditional” views of childrearing to come together over the many shared values involved in both of these views. It is also possible for personality differences to smooth the way for a harmonious family life. Often this involves an uneven family structure, where one-half of the couple takes on a “junior partner” role and “gives in” to the “deciding partner” on most marital conflicts. (Although our democratically minded society often frowns on this hierarchal structure, it often does prove a successful marital strategy.)
Financial Security
Although we would like to believe that love will conquer all, financial pressures increase the likelihood of divorce greatly. Despite the similarity of divorce rates for those who are immensely rich and those who are only somewhat well off, divorces go up precipitously for those who are on the lower end of the financial spectrum. Divorces also tend to go up among those who have recently gone through a very difficult financial period.
Researchers believe this may have a great deal to do with the strains that limited financial ability puts on the participants of a marriage and on their psychological views of each other. The harder a financial provider must struggle to support his or her dependents, the more he or she is to view them as “burdens” to be tolerated rather than partners or sources of joy and meaning. Similarly, the more limited financial means force a caretaker to give up the more likely the caretaker is to view their partner as inadequate and feel that they must depend on their own resources.
Life Stage at time of Marriage
Related to financial security is the life stage of the individuals at the time of marriage. Put simply, when it comes to marriage prediction, the older and more accomplished couples tend to have longer and more successful marriages. Couples that get married when they are in their teens or early twenties are at the greatest risk of divorce, while those who married in their forties, even after former divorces, are far more likely to have long lasting stable marriages.
The reason for this seems to go beyond simple economics (although it is certainly the case that the younger the individuals the more likely they are to be in the lower range of incomes). Maturity seems to have a great deal to do with this predictor. People who have fully developed personalities, have finished their educations, and have established themselves firmly in a career are far more likely to know what they want from partners and to marry compatible individuals. On the other hand, those who get married at a young age are far more likely to do so because of extraneous factors (like unplanned pregnancy) and are far more likely to see their marriages as impediments to their further development.
Of course, these are not the only factors when it comes to predicting the success in an individual marriage and, as with all statistical predictors, you can always find idiosyncratic examples of marriages that seem to go against all of these factors yet turn out well. However, in the majority of cases, when these factors go against a marriage, the marriage is likely to fail. These factors should serve as a warning of problem areas that may need extra efforts not laws etched in stone.